(Image from BBC News (www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174). Interestingly, foreign news sources have less implied bias in the photos they publish.
Oct. 1, 2020:
For several years, a colleague (and good friend) and I have engaged in political discussions at work. Quite often we would discuss domestic issues, international events, economics, political ideologies, and more, during our brief lunches between classes. So as we have transitioned to working from home, it made sense to continue these enriching conversations via email or sometimes video conference. A recent discussion led to some deeper thinking and an eventual (perhaps bizarre) post-election longshot prediction. Note: We are usually pretty good about keeping our biases in check, and if you read to the end of the prediction I hope you come to the conclusion even the prediction is un-/less-biased than you might think.
Setting:
For the past several weeks news organizations have reported that President Trump might "refuse to accept the election results if he loses" (Business Insider, July 19, 2020) and that he "won't commit to the peaceful transition of power" (BBC News, Sept. 24, 2020). The abundance of news stories and the President's own statements on the matter naturally became the topic of our conversations.
What would/could happen if President Trump officially lost the election, but refused to vacate the White House?
Following is our email exchange from Sept. 30:
Teacher 1:
Weird thought while trying to grade student work, but for the hell of it I wanted it in writing well in advance. So here goes:
Trump ends up behind on election night, but contends that ballots are still being counted. By mid-late November it becomes clear that Biden has won, and Trump either really ramps up the rhetoric or then starts trying some bizarre political machinations to overturn the results. The Electoral College and House of Reps. certify the election results, and because of Trump's erratic behavior his Republican Cabinet and V.P. Pence invoke the 25th Amendment to formally remove him from office early.
Your thoughts?
______________________________________________________________________________
Teacher 2:
I could actually see all of that happening... except for Pence turning against him lol. If Trump refuses to accept the results, who makes him leave? Would the military really do it? I don't see law enforcement doing it. It would be total chaos with his base too...
______________________________________________________________________________
Teacher 1:
So here we go, I'm really going to commit to this long shot:
I totally see Pence being able to turn against Trump. First, if it's clear Trump has lost the election, there's no need to "hitch your wagon to a dead horse." So, loyalty is a non-issue. In fact, I would argue that Pence's loyalties are to the Republican Party and the consistency of the political process more than Trump. Following this thought process, if Pence and the majority of the Cabinet turn against Trump, there's an argument to be made that they saved the peaceful transition of power and the American Democratic process. Once the documents are signed and the Speaker of the House and Pres. Pro Tem. of the Senate are notified, the Vice-President "shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President." Therefore, everyone in the White House and the military should be subordinate to Pence. So the military can be used to forcibly remove Trump from the White House.
Since Pence has now "selflessly saved the Union," one of the first acts of President Biden would be to award the former vice-president (Pence) the Presidential Medal of Freedom, promoting goodwill between Democrats and Republicans while further isolating Trump. As to the issue of Trump's base, many of them are loosely committed Republicans who do not present any threat (especially since the 25th is being invoked by Republicans); the "Proud Boys" and other fringe groups might be somewhat of a problem, but they can be easily put in check (under the threat of labeling them "Domestic Terrorists").
The icing on the cake: party Republicans in Congress, state legislatures, the bureaucracy, and centrist registered Republicans should want Biden to win this election as long as Republicans hold the Senate. Biden will be a weak candidate in 2024 as an 81-year old, especially if he commits to the leftist wing of his party. Also, in last night's debate he already said that the Green New Deal "is not my plan" potentially creating some early fractures. Republicans stand the nearly impossible task of winning 2024 if Trump stays in office; I'd think they'd be willing to sacrifice him for the bigger prize.
So we should quickly write a fictional prediction of this and publish quickly. If it happens we get to become well-paid political pundits...lol
For several years, a colleague (and good friend) and I have engaged in political discussions at work. Quite often we would discuss domestic issues, international events, economics, political ideologies, and more, during our brief lunches between classes. So as we have transitioned to working from home, it made sense to continue these enriching conversations via email or sometimes video conference. A recent discussion led to some deeper thinking and an eventual (perhaps bizarre) post-election longshot prediction. Note: We are usually pretty good about keeping our biases in check, and if you read to the end of the prediction I hope you come to the conclusion even the prediction is un-/less-biased than you might think.
Setting:
For the past several weeks news organizations have reported that President Trump might "refuse to accept the election results if he loses" (Business Insider, July 19, 2020) and that he "won't commit to the peaceful transition of power" (BBC News, Sept. 24, 2020). The abundance of news stories and the President's own statements on the matter naturally became the topic of our conversations.
What would/could happen if President Trump officially lost the election, but refused to vacate the White House?
Following is our email exchange from Sept. 30:
Teacher 1:
Weird thought while trying to grade student work, but for the hell of it I wanted it in writing well in advance. So here goes:
Trump ends up behind on election night, but contends that ballots are still being counted. By mid-late November it becomes clear that Biden has won, and Trump either really ramps up the rhetoric or then starts trying some bizarre political machinations to overturn the results. The Electoral College and House of Reps. certify the election results, and because of Trump's erratic behavior his Republican Cabinet and V.P. Pence invoke the 25th Amendment to formally remove him from office early.
Your thoughts?
______________________________________________________________________________
Teacher 2:
I could actually see all of that happening... except for Pence turning against him lol. If Trump refuses to accept the results, who makes him leave? Would the military really do it? I don't see law enforcement doing it. It would be total chaos with his base too...
______________________________________________________________________________
Teacher 1:
So here we go, I'm really going to commit to this long shot:
I totally see Pence being able to turn against Trump. First, if it's clear Trump has lost the election, there's no need to "hitch your wagon to a dead horse." So, loyalty is a non-issue. In fact, I would argue that Pence's loyalties are to the Republican Party and the consistency of the political process more than Trump. Following this thought process, if Pence and the majority of the Cabinet turn against Trump, there's an argument to be made that they saved the peaceful transition of power and the American Democratic process. Once the documents are signed and the Speaker of the House and Pres. Pro Tem. of the Senate are notified, the Vice-President "shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President." Therefore, everyone in the White House and the military should be subordinate to Pence. So the military can be used to forcibly remove Trump from the White House.
Since Pence has now "selflessly saved the Union," one of the first acts of President Biden would be to award the former vice-president (Pence) the Presidential Medal of Freedom, promoting goodwill between Democrats and Republicans while further isolating Trump. As to the issue of Trump's base, many of them are loosely committed Republicans who do not present any threat (especially since the 25th is being invoked by Republicans); the "Proud Boys" and other fringe groups might be somewhat of a problem, but they can be easily put in check (under the threat of labeling them "Domestic Terrorists").
The icing on the cake: party Republicans in Congress, state legislatures, the bureaucracy, and centrist registered Republicans should want Biden to win this election as long as Republicans hold the Senate. Biden will be a weak candidate in 2024 as an 81-year old, especially if he commits to the leftist wing of his party. Also, in last night's debate he already said that the Green New Deal "is not my plan" potentially creating some early fractures. Republicans stand the nearly impossible task of winning 2024 if Trump stays in office; I'd think they'd be willing to sacrifice him for the bigger prize.
So we should quickly write a fictional prediction of this and publish quickly. If it happens we get to become well-paid political pundits...lol